Where We Stand, What’s Driving It, and How to Play It

By Matthew Rufh, RUFH Group

I get a version of the same question almost every day right now:

“Is it a good time to buy or sell?”

The honest answer is that it depends entirely on who you are and what you’re trying
to do — because this is one of the more lopsided markets I’ve worked in. So instead of
giving you a headline, let me walk you through what the numbers actually say, what’s
pushing them around at the economic and federal level, and — the part that matters most —
what you can actually do about it, whether you’re holding the keys or hunting for them.

Where the Fraser Valley actually sits

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board logged 1,124 sales in May. That’s essentially flat from
April and about 5% below this time last year. Meanwhile, active listings climbed to roughly
10,140 — one of the largest piles of inventory we’ve seen in years.

Soft sales plus heavy supply is the textbook definition of a buyer’s market, and that’s
exactly where we are.

On price, the composite benchmark for a typical Fraser Valley home slipped to $893,300,
down 0.7% on the month after a couple of months of small gains. Breaking it down:

Detached: $1,366,500 — down about 8% year over year
Townhomes land in between the two
Condo/apartment: $483,800 — down nearly 9% year over year

And nothing is flying off the shelf. Detached homes are taking about 35 days to sell,
townhomes 37, and condos 40. Homes are sitting.

One wrinkle worth knowing: the Board’s own read is that most of today’s activity is coming
from move-up buyers — people with existing equity trading into something bigger — while
first-time buyers are largely sitting it out.

The forces actually driving this

Interest rates. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on June 10 — the fifth hold
in a row. Inflation has crept back up to around 2.8%, driven mostly by energy prices tied to
the conflict in the Middle East, though the core measure is closer to 2.1%. The Bank expects
inflation to hover near 3% before easing back toward 2% in 2027. The next decision lands
July 15. Translation: don’t plan your life around a summer rate cut. The Bank is stuck
between a weak economy and energy-driven inflation, and “hold” is the path of least
resistance. (That’s general context, not mortgage advice — for your actual numbers, talk to
a mortgage broker.)

The economy and trade. Canada’s GDP actually edged down 0.1% in the first quarter, and
the cloud hanging over everything is U.S. tariff and trade-policy uncertainty, with the
CUSMA review still unresolved. This matters because, in my experience on the ground, the
thing keeping buyers on the sidelines right now isn’t affordability — it’s confidence. People
don’t make the biggest financial decision of their lives when they’re unsure about their job
and the broader economy.

The federal change that actually helps — if you’re buying new

Here’s the piece a lot of people in the Valley haven’t fully clued into yet. The federal First-
Time Home Buyer GST Rebate (Bill C-4) became law on March 12, 2026. It eliminates the
full 5% GST on a newly built home priced up to $1 million for eligible first-time buyers, with a
sliding-scale rebate between $1 million and $1.5 million — worth up to $50,000. It applies to
purchase agreements signed between March 20, 2025 and the end of 2030, and it’s for
new construction only, not resale.

Why does that matter here specifically? The Fraser Valley is full of brand-new condo and
townhome product across Surrey, Langley, and Abbotsford, and a lot of it comes in under
that $1 million line. A first-time buyer picking up a new townhome could be looking at real
savings that simply don’t exist on the resale side. If you’re a first-timer, that changes the
math on new versus used, and it’s worth running before you assume resale is automatically
cheaper.

The quieter story: people and jobs

This is the part that doesn’t make the front page but shapes the next few years. Federal
immigration cuts have pulled hard on demand — B.C.’s population actually shrank by roughly
41,000 in 2025, the first decline in about 150 years, driven by a net outflow of temporary
residents. Provincial growth is forecast around 1.4% for 2026, and unemployment is ticking
up. Less population pressure means less demand pressure, which is part of why prices have
softened.

But don’t write off the long game. Surrey is still growing fast and is projected to potentially
pass Vancouver in population by 2027, and B.C.’s revamped immigration program is now
prioritizing construction trades to actually build housing. The short-term demand story is
soft. The long-term story south of the Fraser is very much intact.

If you’re selling

Price to the market that exists today, not the one from 2022. With 10,000-plus listings competing, buyers have options and they know it. Aspirational pricing just means your home becomes the comp that sells the house down the street.
Condition and presentation matter more than they have in years. When the average home takes 35 to 40 days to move, the ones that actually sell are the ones that show best and are priced right out of the gate.
If you’re moving up, this might be your moment. Yes, you may give a little on your sale — but you’ll likely make it back and then some on the larger home you’re buying into, because that one is discounted too. The spread is what matters, and right now the spread favours the move-up buyer.
Don’t chase the market down. Reluctant $5,000 price drops every three weeks is how you ride a listing all the way to the bottom. Get ahead of it instead of chasing it.

If you’re buying

You have leverage you didn’t have two years ago — use it. Inspection conditions, financing conditions, and real negotiating room are back on the table.
First-time buyer? Look hard at new construction. The GST rebate is genuine money the resale market can’t match. Run both scenarios before you decide.
Get fully pre-approved before you shop, not after you fall in love. With rates holding flat, you can plan with actual confidence rather than guessing.
Stop trying to time the exact bottom. Nobody rings a bell at the bottom, and the people who wait for it usually end up buying on the way back up while paying more. Buy the right home at a price that works for your life.

Bottom line

Soft prices, heavy inventory, flat rates, and shaky confidence — but real, concrete
opportunity for prepared buyers and smart move-up sellers. The people who do well in a
market like this aren’t the ones reacting to headlines. They’re the ones acting on the actual
facts on the ground.
If you want to know what all of this means for your specific situation — what your place
would realistically sell for today, or what your budget actually buys right now in Langley,
Surrey, Abbotsford, or anywhere across the Valley — reach out. I’m always happy to run the
real numbers for you, no pressure attached.
— Matthew, RUFH Group

This update reflects market conditions as of mid-June 2026 and is for general information
only — it isn’t financial, mortgage, or legal advice. For guidance specific to your situation,
let’s talk, and loop in your mortgage and legal professionals as needed.

Get in touch

Contact Agent

Fraser Valley Market Update - June